A Strategic Move by Trump

When former President Donald Trump picked Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) as his running mate, it signaled a bold strategy. Many see it as a sign of Trump’s supreme confidence. But is it overconfidence?

Governing Over Popularity

Vance is viewed more as a governing pick rather than a vote magnet. Delegates at the Republican National Convention believe Trump is securing his legacy with this 39-year-old understudy. The comparison to Mitt Romney’s selection of Paul Ryan in 2012 by Republican pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson is striking. Anderson pointed out that Ryan wasn’t chosen to appeal to a particular demographic but because he was young, energetic, and could carry the torch into the future. Vance might not win Trump new demographics, but he symbolizes the passing of Trump’s worldview to the next generation of Republican leadership.

A Consistent Conservative

Vance represents his governing worldview with more coherence and consistency than Trump. Romney, a former Massachusetts governor and current Utah senator, was once viewed with suspicion by Republicans due to his shifting political personas. In contrast, Trump’s policies are visceral and subject to negotiation. Trump sees himself as uniquely qualified to secure better deals, be it in trade, immigration, or foreign policy.

Vance’s Credibility

Vance’s beliefs stem from personal experience. Growing up poor, he wrote about his life in “Hillbilly Elegy” before entering politics. His public policy positions are detailed and justifiable. Vance has been consistent in his opposition to continued Ukraine aid and has clear views on immigration, contrasting with Trump’s more flexible stance.

Not the GOP of 2012

Vance’s selection signals a departure from the Republican Party of 2012. In his acceptance speech, he criticized NAFTA, China’s entry into the World Trade Organization, and the Iraq War, cleverly hitting President Joe Biden for supporting each while highlighting his youth. Unlike Romney-Ryan’s focus on free trade and entitlement reform, Vance emphasized that America is more than just an idea.

Shifting Republican Ideals

Some Republicans worry that Trump and Vance are moving the party beyond the eras of Romney, George W. Bush, and even Ronald Reagan. Jeff Stein of the Washington Post reported “alarm” from donors and Reaganite conservatives. Influential conservative radio host Erick Erickson noted, “Reaganites are passing the torch to the Buchananites.”

However, Trump has been the titular head of the Republican Party for nearly nine years. He is the Republican presidential nominee for the third straight election, outlasting even Nixon’s eight-year hiatus between nominations. The realignment of working-class voters to the GOP is nearly complete, though a disconnect remains between the party’s elites and its base. Vance is one of the few officials addressing this gap.

Confident Yet Cautious

Choosing Vance shows Trump’s confidence. He’s betting on governance, suggesting he believes the election is in the bag. Biden’s recent struggles and the possibility of a Trump landslide that could usher in GOP majorities in Congress fuel this belief.

At the same time, Trump’s lead is narrow. The RealClearPolitics average shows a 2.5-point lead for Trump, and FiveThirtyEight’s model slightly favors Biden. Trump’s consistent but slim lead in battleground states isn’t insurmountable. Biden’s fragile grip on the Democratic nomination is loosening, and he may be replaced, potentially resetting the race unfavorably for Trump.

Eyes on the Rust Belt

Adding Vance to the ticket indicates Trump isn’t taking anything for granted. The campaign is focusing on the Rust Belt, not just relying on Trump’s appeal to working-class voters. Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, crucial in 2016, were won by Biden in 2020. These states are critical for both campaigns. Trump is leading narrowly in these states, but if Biden is replaced, a Rust Belt governor could be on the ticket, posing a new challenge.

Vance’s Potential Impact

Vance could be a crucial reinforcement for Trump. While some may doubt an Ohioan’s influence in Michigan, Vance’s dedication to struggling industrial and rural communities is clear. He addresses their concerns with subtlety and compassion, complementing Trump’s grandiose style.

In essence, Trump’s bet with Vance is about targeting the voters who will decide the election. Nikki Haley’s speech aimed at suburban women and Trump-ambivalent conservatives offered an alternative. But this election might turn on economically distressed and usually disengaged voters. If that’s the case, Vance could indeed be the man for the job.